The Anchors of Partisanship: A Comparative Analysis of Voting Behavior in Four Southern European Democracies

Abstract

The four Southern European democracies reveal greatly differing patterns of electoral volatility: the Spanish party system underwent a profound restructuring as a result of the "electoral earthquake " of 1982, but has become outstandingly stable since then; the Italian party system had been impressively stable from the 1950s until 1992, but then underwent a complete transformation. But despite the extremely high levels of "total volatility " exhibited by these two party systems, very few voters crossed over the divide separating parties of the left from the right. In contrast, both the Greek and Portuguese party systems have frequently exhibited high levels of "inter-bloc " volatility. What explains these differing patterns? A cursory examination of the varying degrees of organizational development and social penetration of parties, as well as of their linkages to other secondary associations, suggests that these patterns of stability and volatility cannot be attributed to the organizational bases of partisanship. Neither can these patterns be explained by cross-national differences in the extent to which voters identify with parties. A more powerful explanation of these varying and evolving patterns of party-system stabilization and volatility can be found in the extent of

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