Deterrence and the United States Coast Guard: Enhancing Current Practice with Performance Measures

Abstract

Deterrence displaces or delays unwanted behavior. More ambitiously, deterrence aims to permanently discourage an \nindividual or individuals from such behavior. \nIt operates through the prospect of pain or pleasure. Fear of future pain and hope of future pleasure influence choices, habits, \nand predilections. Individuals seek to avoid pain and maximize pleasure. Expectations of pain and pleasure will vary, but \ngiven an individual’s or group’s specific sensibilities a pattern of pain-minimization and pleasure-maximization persists. \nAn effective deterrence strategy rewards “good behavior” and punishes “bad behavior.” \nCoast Guard deterrence effectiveness is anchored in a multifaceted approach to safety, stewardship, and security in maritime \ncommunities. The Coast Guard is also effective in customizing its approach to particular communities or sub-groups within a \ncommunity to deter unwanted behavior. \nHowever, the Coast Guard has not adopted an explicit data-informed strategy of deterrence. As a result Coast Guard practice \nand outcomes are uneven, measurement is not possible, and continual improvement is accordingly difficult. The effectiveness \nof Coast Guard practice is limited by the absence of an organizing theory, systematic process, and measures of performance. \nBased on the long-time Coast Guard practice of deterrence observed, this study has identified several complementary theories \nof psychology, sociology, and economics that may be applied to develop a deterrence strategy. Specifically, the theories of \nBecker, Ostrom, and Kahneman provide a theoretical foundation for a proposed strategy of deterrence and a methodology/tool \nproposed here called the Deterrence Integration Modeling Environment (DIME). DIME combines these theories with Coast \nGuard practice and data-informed technology to bridge the gap between theory and operations. \nBased on these findings, this study recommends the Coast Guard design and build a DIME proof-of-concept system to capture \nand manage “big data” to advance the new strategy of deterrence.

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