The Economics of Rising Stars

Abstract

This paper analyzes an occupation in which there is substantial uncertainty about individual performance and past performance is correlated with future outcomes. In equilibrium, only the young enter the occupation and only the successful stay on. The young are numerous and earn incomes well below what their current alternative o ffers; success is rare and rewarded highly. The implied distribution of earnings must have positive skewness. Copyright 1988 by American Economic Association.

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