Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator

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11 citations0/0 files storedRePEc: Research Papers in Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Forecasting Techniques and Applications Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research into the construction of a composite leading indicator of the Irish rate of inflation, as measured by the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It follows the work of Fagan and Fell (1994) who applied the business cycle leading indicator methodology, initially established by Mitchell and Burns (1938, 1946), to construct a composite leading indicator of the Irish business cycle.

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References

1948Measuring Business Cycles.1991Cointegration: An Introduction to the Literature 1938Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals 1992The Cyclical Behavior of Prices 1995How Useful Are Leading Indicators of Inflation 1995Predicting Turning Points in the UK Inflation Cycle 1987Leading indicators of inflation 1986Leading indicators of inflation in market economies

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1999Inflation Analysis: An Overview

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