The predictability of the Hirsch index evolution

Michael Schreiber

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scientometrics and bibliometrics research Psychology Research and Bibliometrics Web visibility and informetrics

Abstract

The h-index can be used as a predictor of itself. However, the evolution of the h-index with time is shown in the present investigation to be dominated for several years by citations to previous publications rather than by new scientific achievements. This inert behaviour of the h-index raises questions, whether the h-index can be used profitably in academic appointment processes or for the allocation of research resources.

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2005An index to quantify an individual's scientific research output 2007Does the h index have predictive power?2012Predicting scientific success 2008Generalizing the h- and g-indices 2006Simple models and the corresponding h- and g-index 2013How relevant is the predictive power of the h-index? A case study of the time-dependent Hirsch index 2009The influence of self-citation corrections and the fractionalised counting of multi-authored manuscripts on the Hirsch index

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2016Temporal Dynamics of Hirsch Index

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