An explorative econometric model of Sydney metropolitan rail patronage

George Karpouzis

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Transport and Economic Policies Railway Systems and Energy Efficiency

Abstract

An explorative time-series econometric model of the demand for Sydney metropolitan rail is presented that uses annual data from 1969 to 2008. The model uses regression to explain the variation in the year on year change in rail demand. The dependent variable is specified in terms of trips per head using factored population. A set of explanatory variables including gross state product, office employment, fare, train kilometres and 'event' variables are introduced to explain the variation in rail trip rate. Of the variables modelled, office employment and gross product per head are shown to be important determinants of rail patronage. The model is explorative in nature and a more detailed model is under-development. The ultimate aim is a short to medium term forecasting model of rail patronage to guide timetable, operational and business planning.

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