Quantifying the impact of attitudes on shift towards sustainable modes

Abstract

Between 2004 and 2008, Melbourne experienced levels of public transport patronage growth that were not predicted by the four-step transport models. In 2008, the Department of Transport (DOT) (Victoria) undertook elasticity modelling of that patronage growth, which could explain most of the observed growth, but around 20% of growth on metropolitan trains remained ‟unexplained‟. Market research plays a critical role in informing, guiding and challenging the forecasting undertaken by the various models. Market research between 2006 and 2009 broadly supported the elasticity modelling, but suggested the role of attitudinal change – particularly attitudes on the environment and health & fitness – may have been significant. In 2009/10, DOT undertook a market segmentation project to identify the key attitudinal segments in relation to mode choice in Melbourne – and in a second phase used a choice modelling methodology to quantify the impact of attitudes in driving the decision-making process in selecting a mode of travel. The results suggest that about one in five Melburnians claim to have attitudes that „ideologically‟ align them to public transport, that attitudinal change most likely did play a role in the patronage surge, and that future patronage forecasts are likely to be sensitive to further changes in community attitudes.

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