Before the vote: forecasting American national elections

Abstract

PART ONE: INTRODUCTION Forecasting US National Elections - James E Campbell and James C Garand PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS Polls and Votes - James E Campbell The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure - Alan Abramowitz Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election Of Time and Candidates - Helmut Norpoth A Forecast for 1996 The Future in Forecasting - Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien Prospective Presidential Models Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts - Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson Reading the Political Tea Leaves - Thomas Holbrook A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections Election Forecasting - Brad Lockerbie A Look to the Future Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years - Robert S Erikson and Lee Sigelman 1952-1992 and 1996 PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election - Nathaniel Beck The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections - James E Campbell

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