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Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals
16 references·0 citing·52 second hop
Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals (2011)Overconfident for real? Proper scoring fo…Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity (2009)Sensation Seeking, Overconfid…Selling to Overconfident Consumers (2009)Selling to Overconfident Cons…Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts (2009)Reducing Overconfidence in th…A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes (2009)A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesia…Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you? (2008)Overconfidence in interval es…z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments (2007)z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for re…When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals (2005)When 90% confidence intervals…Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market (2005)Judgemental Overconfidence, S…The Online Recruitment System ORSEE - A Guide for the Organization of Experiments in Economics (2004)The Online Recruitment System…Overconfidence in Interval Estimates. (2004)Overconfidence in Interval Es…Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask (1999)Overconfidence: It Depends on…Decomposed Versus Holistic Estimates of Effort Required for Software Writing Tasks (1997)Decomposed Versus Holistic Es…Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off. (1995)Graininess of judgment under …MONETARY REWARDS AND DECISION COST IN EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS (1993)MONETARY REWARDS AND DECISION…Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis (1991)Overconfidence in estimation:…Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Prospect theory: An analysis …The Handbook of experimental economics (1995)Psychology and Economics (1997)The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework (1999)Taxpayer information assistance services and tax compliance behavior (2010)Measuring lying aversion (2013)The Lure of Authority: Motivation and Incentive Effects of Power (2013)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Introduction to Meta‐Analysis (2009)A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol (2017)Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them (2019)Ask the Experts: What Should Be on an IoT Privacy and Security Label? (2020)Introduction to Meta‐Analysis (2021)Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health. (1988)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Market microstructure: A survey of microfoundations, empirical results, and policy implications (2005)Talk and Action: What Individual Investors Say and What They Do (2005)Behavioral Finance (2015)Statistical principles in experimental design. (1962)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Gender and Competition (2011)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)Reexamination of the perfectness concept for equilibrium points in extensive games (1975)An evolutionary theory of economic change (1982)Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Economics in the Laboratory (1994)Global Capital and National Governments (2001)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)The case for motivated reasoning. (1990)Knowledge Calibration: What Consumers Know and What They Think They Know (2000)Individual differences in adult decision-making competence. (2007)Managerial Miscalibration* (2013)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning (1991)Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance (2007)Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency (1993)Religious beliefs, gambling attitudes, and financial market outcomes (2011)The Behavior of Individual Investors (2013)Pilot CEOs and corporate innovation (2016)An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation (1971)Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information (1976)Monopoly and product quality (1978)The Rise in Mortgage Defaults (2009)Cellular Service Demand: Biased Beliefs, Learning, and Bill Shock (2012)Salience (2022)Are people conditionally cooperative? Evidence from a public goods experiment (2001)Altruistic punishment in humans (2002)Do Women Shy Away From Competition? Do Men Compete Too Much? (2007)
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References

  • 1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk32,475 cited
  • 2007z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments9,517 cited
  • 2009Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity822 cited
  • 1999Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask786 cited
  • 2004The Online Recruitment System ORSEE - A Guide for the Organization of Experiments in Economics603 cited
  • 1993MONETARY REWARDS AND DECISION COST IN EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS560 cited
  • 2004Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.508 cited
  • 2005Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market506 cited
  • 2009Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts351 cited
  • 2009Selling to Overconfident Consumers331 cited
  • 1995Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off.311 cited
  • 2009A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes219 cited
  • 1991Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis209 cited
  • 2008Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?180 cited
  • 2005When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals

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167 cited
  • 1997Decomposed Versus Holistic Estimates of Effort Required for Software Writing Tasks115 cited
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