Bounded rationality : Models of fast and frugal inference

Abstract

Humans and other animals need to make inferences about their environment under constraints of limited time, knowledge, and computational capacities.However, most theories of inductive inferences model the human mind as a supercomputer like a Laplacean demon, equipped with unlimited time, knowledge, and computational capacities.In this article I review models of fast and frugal inference, that is, satisfi cing strategies whose task is to infer unknown states of the world (without relying on computationaly expensive procedures such as multiple regression).Fast and frugal inference is a form of bounded rationality (Simon, 1982).I begin by explaining what bounded rationality in human inference is not.

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