Relative variance preferences in a choice-among-bets paradigm.

Raymond C. Seghers · Dennis G. Fryback · Barbara C. Goodman

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Psychometric Methodologies and Testing Economic and Environmental Valuation

Abstract

Abstract : The validity of the prime assumption of proper scoring rules (PSR), that people maximize subjective expected value (SEV), was tested in the case where SEV was assumed to equal EV. A choice-among-bets paradigm was used in which the lists of bets conformed to the requirements of a PSR. Both real and hypothetical payoff conditions were used, and in addition, EV, variance, and odds of the gambles were systematically varied. The use of list of bets generated by a PSR as a response mode for inferring subjective probabilities is questioned because of the weakness of the SEV maximization assumption in this context.

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