ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING IN JAPAN: EFFECTS THROUGH CHANGES IN DEMAND STRUCTURE

Mitsuru Katagiri

45 citations0/0 files storedThe Singapore Economic Review

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Theory and Policy Economic Growth and Productivity

Abstract

In this paper, I investigate the effects of changes in demand structure caused by population aging on the Japanese economy using a multi-sector new Keynesian model with job creation/destruction analysis. I consider upward revisions in forecast for the speed of Japanese population aging as unexpected shocks to its demand structure. I find that the shocks caused around 0.3% point deflationary pressure on year-to-year inflation, 0.3% to 0.4% point increase in unemployment rates, and 1.8% point decrease in real GDP from the early 1990s to the 2000s in Japan. I also find that the repetition of such upward revisions made those effects look more persistent.

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n.d.Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function 2012International Journal of Central Banking 2002The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade 2001Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes 2007The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions 2015Monetary policy, inflation and the business cycle 2008An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining 2007Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods

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2014Chronic Deflation in Japan 2016The effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from a structural dynamic factor model for Japan 2014Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?2019Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates 2018Demography and Inflation: An International Study

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