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Decision‐Based Methods for Forecast Evaluation
16 references·16 citing·37 second hopsampled
Decision‐Based Methods for Forecast Evaluation (2004)Decision‐Based Methods for Forecast Evalu…Tests for Forecast Encompassing (1998)Tests for Forecast Encompassi…Forecasting Economic Time Series (1998)Forecasting Economic Time Ser…Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management (1998)Evaluating Density Forecasts …An Overview of Value at Risk (1997)An Overview of Value at RiskAsymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability (1996)Asymptotic Inference about Pr…Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance (1995)Predictability of Stock Retur…A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance (1992)A Simple Nonparametric Test o…Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns (1989)Economic Significance of Pred…Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models (1986)Econometric Evaluation of Lin…The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target (1985)The Optimal Degree of Commitm…A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model (1983)A Positive Theory of Monetary…On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills (1981)On Market Timing and Investme…Forecasting Economic Time Series (1977)Forecasting Economic Time Ser…A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score (1973)A New Vector Partition of the…Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. (1971)Time Series Analysis Forecast…Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast? (1933)Can Stock Market Forecasters …Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations (2016)Optimal Portfolio Choice Unde…How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets? (2016)How to Identify and Forecast …Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting (2014)Unpredictability in economic …Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither? (2013)Forecasting by factors, by va…Forecasting Binary Outcomes (2013)Forecasting Binary OutcomesThe information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market (2011)The information content of a …On economic evaluation of directional forecasts (2011)On economic evaluation of dir…Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures marketsstar (2009)Model averaging in risk manag…Internal Consistency of Survey Respondents' Forecasts: Evidence Based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters* (2009)Internal Consistency of Surve…Model‐free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets (2007)Model‐free evaluation of dire…Forecasting and Decision Theory (2006)Forecasting and Decision Theo…Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity (2006)Early warning systems for sov…Chapter 2 Forecasting and Decision Theory (2006)Chapter 2 Forecasting and Dec…REAL-TIME ECONOMETRICS (2005)REAL-TIME ECONOMETRICSModelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers (2005)Modelling and forecasting sto…The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond (2001)The Out-of-Sample Success of …Specification Tests in Econometrics (1978)Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research (1995)Introductory Econometrics for Finance (2008)Expected stock returns and volatility (1987)Efficient Capital Markets: II (1991)On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks (1993)Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns (1999)International evidence on ethical mutual fund performance and investment style (2004)Can Mutual Fund “Stars” Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis (2006)ARCH modeling in finance (1992)Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances (1992)Comparing Predictive Accuracy (1994)Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility (2001)Testing Density Forecasts, With Applications to Risk Management (2001)The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application (2006)A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model (1981)Reputation and imperfect information (1982)International Norm Dynamics and Political Change (1998)The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities (1973)Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation (1982)Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (1986)Portfolio optimization with conditional value-at-risk objective and constraints (2001)Value-at-Risk-Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices (2001)A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)? (2005)Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy (2009)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)Forecast Verification (2011)Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy (1983)The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective (1999)Varieties of Capitalism (2001)Hot Hands in Mutual Funds: Short-Run Persistence of Relative Performance, 1974-1988 (1993)Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds (1997)The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers (2001)Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root (1979)Some recent development in a concept of causality (1988)Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties (2002)
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References

  • 1971Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control.6,714 cited
  • 1985The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target3,687 cited
  • 1983A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model2,212 cited
  • 1998Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management1,452 cited
  • 1996Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability1,415 cited
  • 1981On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills1,321 cited
  • 1997An Overview of Value at Risk1,320 cited
  • 1973A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score1,120 cited
  • 1995Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance1,034 cited
  • 1992A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance897 cited
  • 1998Forecasting Economic Time Series863 cited
  • 1998Tests for Forecast Encompassing786 cited
  • 1933Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?727 cited
  • 1977Forecasting Economic Time Series697 cited
  • 1986Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models601 cited
  • 1989Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns

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597 cited

Cited by

  • 2006Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity83 cited
  • 2005Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers82 cited
  • 2009Model averaging in risk management with an application to futures marketsstar74 cited
  • 2001The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond73 cited
  • 2011On economic evaluation of directional forecasts64 cited
  • 2016Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations64 cited
  • 2006Chapter 2 Forecasting and Decision Theory61 cited
  • 2014Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting61 cited
  • 2005REAL-TIME ECONOMETRICS61 cited
  • 2006Forecasting and Decision Theory60 cited
  • 2016How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?59 cited
  • 2013Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?57 cited
  • 2007Model‐free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets49 cited
  • 2013Forecasting Binary Outcomes49 cited
  • 2011The information content of a limit order book: The case of an FX market48 cited
  • 2009Internal Consistency of Survey Respondents' Forecasts: Evidence Based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters*46 cited