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Journey to work data from the 2001 census at ward level is used together with data on a range of socio-demographic variables, rail service levels and bus stop locations to develop and calibrate conventional regression models of the propensity to travel to work by rail in the area around Cardiff, South Wales. The best-performing models are then recalibrated using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), allowing local variations in the effect of the independent variables on rail demand to be mapped using GIS, investigated and incorporated in the modelling process. Flow level models of rail demand within the case study are then calibrated, and different methods for incorporating spatial parameter variations in these models are tested. Some conclusions are drawn about possible reasons for the spatial variations in rail use that have been identified, and the implications for demand forecasting for new stations and lines are discussed.
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