GDP in Pre-Modern Agrarian Economies (1-1820 AD): A Revision of the Estimates

Abstract

Over the last decades, the works by Angus Maddison have marked a meaningful step forward in the field of applied economics. Their contribution to research will be of importance for a long time. The following comments concern Maddison’s analysis of pre-modern per capita GDP, which comprises an important part of his last works. The pre-1820 product has been primarily examined by Maddison in his work The World Economy: a Millennial Perspective, published in 2001. Contours of the World Economy, 1-2030 AD, is a new and remarkable advance in his pre-modern research. We shall examine some of his results, following, however, his methods. In contrast with the opinion of several historians, we believe that, even in the case of past agrarian economies, for which quantitative evidence is scanty, if not almost inexistent, “quantification – as Maddison himself writes -clarifies issues which qualitative analysis leaves fuzzy. It is more readily contestable and thus likely to be contested. It sharpens scholarly discussion, sparks off rival hypotheses, and contributes to the dynamics of the research process”. We shall take the European economy into account. Maddison’s view can be summarized by the following series of data (in 1990 international dollars PPP) concerning Western Europe and covering almost two millennia:

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