Subjective Probability and Human Judgement

Abstract

Abstract Psychological research on Subjective Probability has used a variety of strategies to investigate how reliable people are at judging probabilities. The issue is of considerable practical importance as all sorts of critical decisions depend on assessment of the likelihood of events for which there is neither a method for mathematically computing its probability nor actuarial data for measuring it empirically. Since the development of Decision theory, a plethora of management technologies have emerged that can take advantage of likelihood information for decision support. While the concept of subjective probability remains a theoretically contentious notion for some, people can and do express and request judgments of the likelihood of uncertain events. Here, research investigating the validity of subjective probabilities – judged likelihood – is reviewed.

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