Sustainable Social Security: What Would It Cost?

Ronald Demos Lee · Hisashi Yamagata

16 citations0/0 files storedNational Tax Journal

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Retirement, Disability, and Employment Economic and Fiscal Studies Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis

Abstract

The standard measure of the 75-year Social Security imbalance is 1.87 percent of payroll, but raising taxes this much would not make finances sustainable. We consider exact and approximate infinite horizon measures based on different strategies for extending the projections past 75 years. These indicate imbalances of 3.1 to 5.7 percent of payroll. We also suggest a simpler common sense measure: the tax increase necessary to make the Trust Fund Ratio equal in the 74th and 75th years. Under the Trustees' mortality projection, it indicates 3.1 percent imbalance, with a more rapid mortality decline of 4.2 percent. All sustainability measures indicate greater imbalance than is currently thought.

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References

2001Evaluating the Performance of the Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality 1994Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low 1986How Change in Age-specific Mortality Affects Life Expectancy 1993Forecasting Survival, Health, and Disability: Report on a Workshop

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2007Uncertain policy for an uncertain world: The case of social security

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