Article1993

Forecasting Survival, Health, and Disability: Report on a Workshop

25 citations0/0 files storedPopulation and Development Review

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Statistical Methods in Epidemiology Healthcare Systems and Public Health

Abstract

The authors report on a 1992 workshop convened to discuss ways to more accurately forecast mortality morbidity and disability in the United States. Workshop discussions supported use of medium-term forecasts produced by a statistical model by Lee and Carter; qualitative adjustments should be made on the basis of medical and biological knowledge about forces likely to affect mortality. The article also includes suggestions about further development of aggregate statistical projection models and other statistical issues about the development of models of specific diseases and causes of death and about other research needs. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

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References

1980Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity 1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 1990In Search of Methuselah: Estimating the Upper Limits to Human Longevity 1991Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health 1989The Compression of Morbidity: Near or Far?1984Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1983 to 2080.1983The Accuracy of Population Projections 1991Limits to Human Life Expectancy: Evidence, Prospects, and Implications

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