Article2014

The Longevity Prospects of Australian Seniors: An Evaluation of Forecast Method and Outcome

16 citations0/0 files storedAsia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications Statistical Methods in Epidemiology

Abstract

Abstract Continuing rapid changes in the level and pattern of mortality require that forecasts are available that are timely, relevant and reliable. This paper evaluates a previous forecast of the mortality and longevity of Australian seniors, both in terms of the validity of the chosen method – the Booth–Maindonald–Smith (BMS) variant of Lee–Carter – and the accuracy and reliability of the forecast itself. The validity of the method is assessed by a comprehensive review and evaluation of available methods, confirming BMS as the method of choice. The accuracy and reliability of the forecast is assessed by comparing it with actual experience and with a new forecast of period and cohort survival probabilities and life expectancies. The evaluation and the current forecast itself will inform the actuarial profession and wider industry in the areas of mortality and longevity risk as well as public debate and policy in population health and ageing.

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References

2006Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030 1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 2006A Two‐Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration 2006A cohort-based extension to the Lee–Carter model for mortality reduction factors 2002A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables 2006Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach 2009A Quantitative Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Models Using Data From England and Wales and the United States 2005Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method

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