Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases

Bethany H. Mihajlovits · Jason R. W. Merrick

1 citations0/0 files storedWiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Multi-Criteria Decision Making Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

Abstract Thinking in terms of probabilities is not easy and we tend to use rather primitive cognitive techniques to make such assessments. These techniques are called heuristics . Heuristics are simple and intuitive but tend to result in probabilities that are biased. This article reviews the problems associated with probability elicitation and methods for improving such assessments.

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1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases 1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability 1982Judgment under Uncertainty 1973On the psychology of prediction.1982Judgment under uncertainty: Causality and attribution 1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.1990Uncertainty 1975Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis

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