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Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases
16 references·0 citing·29 second hop
Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from Individuals and Reducing Biases (2011)Eliciting Subjective Probabilities from I…A study of expert overconfidence (2007)A study of expert overconfide…Separating Probability Elicitation from Utilities (1999)Separating Probability Elicit…The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items (1994)The Overconfidence Phenomenon…Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. (1994)Simultaneous over- and underc…Comparing the Calibration and Coherence of Numerical and Verbal Probability Judgments (1993)Comparing the Calibration and…Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems (1991)Eliciting probabilities from …Uncertainty (1990)UncertaintyState of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review (1983)State of the Art—Encoding Sub…Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. (1983)Extensional versus intuitive …Judgment under uncertainty: Causality and attribution (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: C…Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)Judgment under UncertaintyNewspaper Coverage of Causes of Death (1979)Newspaper Coverage of Causes …Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis (1975)Exceptional Paper—Probability…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the psychology of predicti…Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Availability: A heuristic for…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Arbitrary metrics in psychology. (2006)Two-stage dynamic signal detection: A theory of choice, decision time, and confidence. (2010)Ubiquitous Log Odds: A Common Representation of Probability and Frequency Distortion in Perception, Action, and Cognition (2012)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review (2002)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgment, and Social Cognition (2007)Facts and Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk (1980)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment (1996)Risk Perception and Communication Unplugged: Twenty Years of Process1 (1995)Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods (2002)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Development of NASA-TLX (Task Load Index): Results of Empirical and Theoretical Research (1988)Epistemic Injustice (2007)Those Who Understand: Knowledge Growth in Teaching (1986)Perception of Risk (1987)The weirdest people in the world? (2010)Introduction: epistemic communities and international policy coordination (1992)Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency (1993)
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References

  • 1974Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases28,742 cited
  • 1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability9,980 cited
  • 1982Judgment under Uncertainty8,238 cited
  • 1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
  • 1982Judgment under uncertainty: Causality and attribution4,616 cited
  • 1983Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.3,990 cited
  • 1990Uncertainty1,711 cited
  • 1975Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis663 cited
  • 1994Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.644 cited
  • 1979Newspaper Coverage of Causes of Death524 cited
  • 1983State of the Art—Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review350 cited
  • 1994The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items323 cited
  • 1991Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems309 cited
  • 1993Comparing the Calibration and Coherence of Numerical and Verbal Probability Judgments240 cited
  • 2007A study of expert overconfidence203 cited

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  • 1999Separating Probability Elicitation from Utilities131 cited
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