Evolution of Factors Influencing First Union Formation in Canada

Abstract

This study examined determinants of entry into first unions (marriage or cohabitation as competing risks) in Canada. The study examined historical change in the lives of four 10-year birth cohorts. Data were obtained from the 1995 Canadian General Social Survey among a nationally representative sample of 10749 persons aged over 15 years. The analysis relied on event history techniques separately for men and women type of first union and cohorts born before and after 1960. The analysis examined the effects of a child born before the first union and the effects of mens and womens educational attainment. Findings indicate 2476 first cohabiting unions and 6204 first marriages. The likelihood of entering cohabitation increased significantly among younger birth cohorts. The likelihood of entering marriage declined. Overall rates of union formation have slowed over time. An impending or already born child always increased the likelihood of union entry. The effects were stronger for men and for entering a marriage. The least educated men were less likely to marry than more educated men. Employed persons were the most likely to enter a first union. French speakers were more likely to enter cohabitation than non-French speakers. Non-churchgoers were more likely to first cohabit. Among cohorts there was an increase in pregnancy leading to cohabitation marriage after children are born and single female parents without partners. The effects of educational attainment changed between cohorts. Factors related to entering into marriage have changed drastically over the past 30 years.

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