Vehicles, Roads, and Road Use: Alternative Empirical Specifications

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No AccessPolicy Research Working Papers25 Jun 2013Vehicles, Roads, and Road Use: Alternative Empirical SpecificationsAuthors/Editors: Gregory K. Ingram, Zhi LiuGregory K. Ingram, Zhi Liuhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-2036SectionsAboutPDF (0.2 MB) ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract:December 1998 The vehicle to road ratio in urban areas is increasing with income at an alarmingly high rate. Economic growth appears to be producing urban gridlock and promoting low density urban development--a phenomenon that deserves attention and analysis. Ingram and Liu extend their earlier empirical work by exploring alternative specifications for the relationship between vehicle ownership, road length, and the ratio of vehicles to road length, on the one hand, and income, population, population density, and other variables, on the other. For the constancy or variability of cross-section income elasticities for each of these variables, they find that: ° The income elasticity of vehicle ownership decreases slightly with income at the national level but is constant at the urban level. ° The income elasticity of road length is constant at the national level but increases with income at the urban level. ° The income elasticity of the vehicle to road ratio decreases with income at both the national and urban level and, at high income levels, becomes negative for urban roads and for national paved roads. Comparisons of income elasticities from cross-section and time series data indicate that they are generally similar for vehicles, road length, and the vehicle to road ratio at the national level. But at the urban level the time series income elasticity of road length (0.1) is much smaller than the cross-section elasticity (0.7), and the time series income elasticity of the vehicle to road ratio (0.9) is much larger than the cross-section elasticities (0.1 for low income cities and Ð0.5 for high income cities). This means that the vehicle to road ratio (a proxy for congestion) is increasing over time in cities, almost in step with per capita income--a trend with dire consequences for urban transport. Although the urban results are somewhat alarming, the national results indicate that the vehicle to road ratio nationally (especially on paved roads) is relatively low and not rising rapidly. It also shows remarkable stability across country income levels. This contrast between the national and urban results reinforces the view that urban decentralization is likely to remain the major mode of adjustment to urban congestion. This paper-a joint product of the Research Advisory Staff and the Transport Division, Transport, Water, and Urban Development Department-is part of a research project on motorization and roads. The authors may be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected] Previous bookNext book FiguresReferencesRecommendedDetailsCited ByAssessment of Transport Connections Based on AccessibilityTransportation Research Procedia, Vol.14Traffic fatalities and economic growthAccident Analysis & Prevention, Vol.37, No.1Understanding and predicting private motorised urban mobilityTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol.8, No.4 View Published: November 1999 Copyright & Permissions Related RegionsAfricaEast Asia & PacificLatin America & CaribbeanRelated CountriesAustraliaChinaIndonesiaJapanKorea, Republic ofRelated TopicsTransport KeywordsCONGESTIONELASTICITIESELASTICITYLENGTH OF ROADSMOTOR VEHICLEMOTOR VEHICLE OWNERSHIPMOTOR VEHICLESPOPULATION DENSITIESPOPULATION DENSITYPOPULATION GROWTHROADROAD NETWORKROAD PROVISIONROAD USEROADSTRUEURBAN ROADVEHICLEVEHICLE OWNERSHIPVEHICLES PDF DownloadLoading ...

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