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In this paper, the authors review a number of published articles, based on the Australian experience with travel behaviour modification, and also review several reports, and materials from the application areas. From these reviews, analyses are performed to see what the actual expected shift is in mode use for the whole population. It is found that there appears to be evidence that the claims of 10 or more percent shift out of car driver are over-stated, and that real shifts may be of the order of five to seven percent. Second, some sampling issues are discussed that indicate that the numbers reported to date may not be as reliable as one would like. Third, the locations of the test applications are examined and discussed, and it is suggested that there may be some significant bias in these locations towards a larger uptake of the shifts into environmentally-friendly modes of travel. In sum, the paper concludes that travel behaviour modification is capable of making changes in the use of environmentally friendly modes, but not at the rates that have often been claimed. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E210413.
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