Presidents, Governors, and Electoral Accountability

Abstract

This paper is designed to demonstrate that citizen evaluations of presidential performance operate as an influence on voting in gubernatorial elections. The discussion first highlights the debate over the impact of presidential support in national elections and presents aggregate-level evidence suggesting that this impact extends to gubernatorial contests. Next, an individual-level model of the gubernatorial vote is estimated using a pooled data set from the election year surveys conducted by the Center for Political Studies from 1972 through 1986. The estimated model reveals that evaluations of the president operate as an influence on the voting preferences of citizens. A series of diagnostic exercises shows that this influence is not an artifact of a particular survey, type of election, or presidential administration. A series of simulations reveals that the impact of these evaluations is sizable enough to alter both the voting of individuals and the outcomes of gubernatorial contests. The discussion concludes by using these results to reflect upon the character of electoral accountability in the United States.

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