Innovation in the computer industry

Abstract

A learning-curve approach has been employed to study inventiveness in the computer industry. The appearance of new models as well as the appearance of new computer manufacturers have been following typical logistic S-curves over the last 26 years of computer history. Innovation seems to come in S-waves, and even though many of today's major manufacturers are close to exhausting their maximum innovation potential in their present S-wave, the overall computer market is rather “young”. In contrast, the personal computer market is already beyond its maturity phase. Remarkably invariant over the 26 years considered, and through the complete range of computer sizes, remains the fact that for every five new computer models appearing on the market, there is one new computer company emerging also.

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