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The Scientist Speculates: An Anthology of Partly-baked Ideas
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The Basic Model (2004)Combining Probability Forecasts (2010)Quantiles as optimal point forecasts (2010)A review of predictive uncertainty estimation with machine learning (2024)A progress report on the training of probability assessors (1982)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return (1993)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Measurement and prediction, clinical and statistical. 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(1966)The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions (1968)Feature Article—Decision Analysis: An Overview (1982)Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests (2007)An Introduction to Copulas (1999)Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk‐Assessment Battlefield (1999)Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (2006)The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments (2018)Eliciting Model Structures for Multivariate Probabilistic Risk Analysis (2021)The Handbook of experimental economics (1995)A Theory of Fairness, Competition, and Cooperation (1999)z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments (2007)Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging (2013)Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs (2021)Is No News (Perceived As) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure (2021)An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts (1963)Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement. (1966)The Handbook of Social Psychology (1969)CONFIDE: A Collective Decision-Making Procedure Using Confidence Estimates of Individual Judgements (1998)The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns (2011)User Reviews Variance, Critic Reviews Variance, and Product Sales: An Exploration of Customer Breadth and Depth Effects (2015)
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  • 1985Delegated portfolio management308 cited
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  • 1996Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities227 cited
  • 2009A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes219 cited
  • 1967The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions202 cited
  • 2014Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums140 cited
  • 1971Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results137 cited
  • 2016Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement82 cited
  • 1977Methods for Aggregating Opinions62 cited
  • 2007Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters59 cited
  • 1979Is there any scientific explanation of the paranormal?59 cited
  • 1974A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ASSESSORS49 cited
  • 2013The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science40 cited
  • 2021Mathematically aggregating experts’ predictions of possible futures

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39 cited
  • 2007The Parimutuel Kelly Probability Scoring Rule39 cited