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Comment on Cooke's classical method
14 references·16 citing·36 second hop
Comment on Cooke's classical method (2008)Comment on Cooke's classical methodProbability Judgments for Continuous Quantities: Linear Combinations and Calibration (2004)Probability Judgments for Con…The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications (2000)The M3-Competition: results, …Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis (1999)Combining Probability Distrib…Subjective probability (1995)Subjective probabilityThe M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study (1993)The M2-competition: A real-ti…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1990)Combining forecasts: A review…Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography (1989)Combining forecasts: A review…A General Method for Comparing Probability Assessors (1989)A General Method for Comparin…Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition (1988)Analyzing the accuracy of pro…The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition (1982)The accuracy of extrapolation…Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: H…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions (1976)Scoring Rules for Continuous …Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Developing a reference protocol for structured expert elicitation in health-care decision-making: a mixed-methods study (2021)Developing a reference protoc…Weighting and aggregating expert ecological judgments (2020)Weighting and aggregating exp…Aggregating predictions from experts: A review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications (2020)Aggregating predictions from …Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols (2019)Improving expert forecasts in…Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition (2019)Combining prediction interval…Modified Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Approach to Cost Overrun Risk Assessment of Power Plant Projects (2018)Modified Fuzzy Group Decision…A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments (2016)A comparison of two methods f…There is Data, and then there is Data: Only Experimental Evidence will Determine the Utility of Differential Weighting of Expert Judgment (2015)There is Data, and then there…The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight? (2014)The Aggregation of Expert Jud…Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem (2013)Trimmed Opinion Pools and the…The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model (2013)The effect of the number of s…Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts (2013)Probabilistic Coherence Weigh…Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods Using Synthetic Data (2012)Combining Experts’ Judgments:…Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique (2011)Comparison of a new expert el…Aggregating expert judgement (2011)Aggregating expert judgementThe reliability of aggregated probability judgments obtained through Cooke's classical model (2009)The reliability of aggregated…Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)La prévision : ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives (1937)Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions (1975)Comparing Density Forecasts Using Threshold- and Quantile-Weighted Scoring Rules (2010)Forecast Verification (2011)Probabilistic Forecasting (2014)Expert judgment: Some necessary conditions and an example. (1974)25 years of time series forecasting (2006)Chapter 4 Forecast Combinations (2006)The Combination of Forecasts (1969)Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (1977)Exponential smoothing: The state of the art (1985)Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons (1992)Forecasting methods and applications (1993)Agreeing to Disagree (1976)Constructing Probability Boxes and Dempster-Shafer Structures (2003)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy (2014)Investor Psychology and Security Market Under‐ and Overreactions (1998)Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment (2001)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)Ethical Decision Making by Individuals in Organizations: An Issue-Contingent Model (1991)Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making (1997)Statistical and Machine Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward (2018)Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions (2020)Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven‐country data set (2004)Handbook of Economic Forecasting (2013)The potential benefits of teacher efficacy doubts for educational reform (2002)The intricate relationships between monitoring and control in metacognition: Lessons for the cause-and-effect relation between subjective experience and behavior. (2006)Editorial (2015)
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References

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  • 2000The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications1,700 cited
  • 1982The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition1,465 cited
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  • 1976Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions950 cited
  • 1999Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis824 cited
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  • 2014The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?

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123 cited
  • 2021Developing a reference protocol for structured expert elicitation in health-care decision-making: a mixed-methods study102 cited
  • 2011Aggregating expert judgement94 cited
  • 2013Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem76 cited
  • 2018Modified Fuzzy Group Decision-Making Approach to Cost Overrun Risk Assessment of Power Plant Projects60 cited
  • 2013The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke′s classical model59 cited
  • 2016A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments59 cited
  • 2015There is Data, and then there is Data: Only Experimental Evidence will Determine the Utility of Differential Weighting of Expert Judgment54 cited
  • 2011Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique51 cited
  • 2020Aggregating predictions from experts: A review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications51 cited
  • 2020Weighting and aggregating expert ecological judgments50 cited
  • 2013Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts48 cited
  • 2019Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition47 cited
  • 2012Combining Experts’ Judgments: Comparison of Algorithmic Methods Using Synthetic Data43 cited
  • 2019Improving expert forecasts in reliability: Application and evidence for structured elicitation protocols38 cited
  • 2009The reliability of aggregated probability judgments obtained through Cooke's classical model37 cited