A dynamic model for hardware/software obsolescence

Kouroush Jenab · Kourosh Noori · Philip D. Weinsier · Sam Khoury

16 citations0/0 files storedInternational Journal of Quality & Reliability Management

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Transportation Systems and Infrastructure Reliability and Maintenance Optimization Technology Assessment and Management

Abstract

Purpose – Since technological lifecycles do not always match hardware/software (HW/SW) lifecycles, obsolescence becomes a major issue in system lifecycle management as it can cause premature and unscheduled replacement of HW/SW subsystems. The purpose of this paper is to report a dynamic model to predict the obsolescence dates for HW/SW subsystems. Design/methodology/approach – The dynamic model estimates obsolescence dates for HW/SW subsystems based on graph theory concept. The model depicts the stages of subsystem obsolescence through transmittances composed of probability and time-distribution elements. The model predicts probability and mean time to obsolescence for line replaceable units (LRUs) over the lifetime of the system. An illustrative example in signaling systems used in a train control system was used to demonstrate the application of this model. Findings – Generally, the short timespan for HW/SW subsystems, which are periodically replaced with newer technologies, results in the development of new product lines by suppliers while they try to support legacy systems for a reasonable period of time. Obsolescence of HW/SW subsystems increases operation and maintenance costs as legacy systems are typically more expensive to maintain. The costs can be reduced by an optimum time to obsolescence derived from the model. Practical implications – This research adds to the body of knowledge on asset management and maintenance strategy. This paper may be of particular interest to reliability, maintainability and availability practitioners and project managers. Originality/value – The originality of this paper lies in developing a graph-based model that predicts probability and mean time to obsolescence for LRUs over the lifetime of the system.

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References

2000Electronic part life cycle concepts and obsolescence forecasting 2006Obsolescence Driven Design Refresh Planning for Sustainment-Dominated Systems 2007A Data Mining Based Approach to Electronic Part Obsolescence Forecasting 2002Good buy? Delaying end-of-life purchases 2007Integrating Technology Obsolescence Considerations Into Product Design Planning 2009Component Obsolescence Risk Assessment 2006The COTS Software Obsolescence Threat 2005Stochastic Fault Tree Analysis With Self-Loop Basic Events

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2018Software obsolescence risk assessment approach using multicriteria decision‐making

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