A demand model for international freight transport by road

Agostino Nuzzolo · Umberto Crisalli · Antonio Comi

18 citations0/0 files storedEuropean Transport Research Review

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transportation and logistics systems Transport and Logistics Innovations Urban and Freight Transport Logistics

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents a system of models for the estimation of road international (import/export) freight flows by using a partial share approach. It allows to simulate generation (for export), attraction (for import) and distribution steps for the estimation of freight flows in quantities (commodity approach), from which the conversion in vehicles is made by using vehicle loading models. This modelling system has been specified according to an easy-to-use philosophy (suitable to be used for forecasting) by using aggregate variables, such as GDP. The calibration has been carried out by using a set of available data in Italy that allowed us to consider import/export flows by road for three different freight types (perishable, industrial and consumption goods).

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References

1988Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models 1955International Trade Statistics 2001Transportation Systems Engineering: Theory and Methods 1975Urban and regional models in geography and planning 1999Infrastructure, transport costs and trade 1990A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport 2008International Trade Statistics 2008 2004The random-utility-based multiregional input–output model: solution existence and uniqueness

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