Uncertainty and Intelligent Transport Systems: implications for policy

Abstract

Policy making with respect to Intelligent Transport Systems has to face a host of uncertainties. These relate to the lack of knowledge about technological developments, about the functionality and the acceptance of the envisaged systems, and about the impacts of these systems once implemented. These uncertainties have important implications for policy choices and the types of policies that should be considered. We first describe a generic typology of uncertainties, their causes, and possible ways to deal with them. Next, we apply this typology to the field of policy making with respect to Intelligent Transport Systems development and implementation. We conclude that a preferred strategy would combine further knowledge acquisition and learning with an adaptive policy. Key elements that need to be elaborated in the development of such a policy are identified.

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