Economic Decision Theory and Human Fertility Behavior: A Speculative Essay

Abstract

Almost all explanations of human fertility have some decision making concepts at their base. This is necessary if choice is in some way involved in fertility determination and if nondecisions are viewed as decisions i.e. as a type of passive choice making. All of this is particularly clear in economic theories of human fertility. Maximization is the explicit decision making criterion and forms the central element of such theories. In this speculative essay attention is directed to some implications of maximization as a decision rule and to the possibility and possible value of introducing alternative decision schemes. In the alternative maximization is not denied yet it is not assumed to be universal. Outlines of different decision theory are presented. The general approach taken is a process view of decision making. Different decision making processes may or may not be consistent with maximization. As this approach can yield very different views of the fertility decision process it allows different questions to be asked about decision making. Economic theory assumes rationality yet fails to clarify the way decisions are made. All economic theories of fertility have a certain common basis; they are all substantively rationalistic. The theories differ on the variables that are considered but they are similar in their implicit view of how decisions are made. Maximization theories are usually of a micro nature yet the tests for the most part involve macro results. The theory concerns how a specific family would behave under specific circumstances. The test involves looking at statistics about how a population behaves on the average apart from the behavior of specific families that determine the average. The question that arises is whether there is any gain by using a decision procedure involving a nonmaximization or occasional maximization approach. Decision making whether of the maximizing or nonmaximizing kind may involve many procedural steps. The number of procedures would depend on the specific content of the decision problem. It is not possible to simply shift from a substantive theory to a detailed procedural theory but an attempt can be made to develop a theory based on a few procedural classes. Each class would be abstract. It would not indicate the detailed procedures used but would suggest the various ways in which decisions are actually made. A brief statement of a theory of the decision process is included and the advantages of models that contain routine decision making are reviewed.

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