No, You Cannot Predict Elections with Twitter

Daniel Gayo-Avello

168 citations0/0 files storedIEEE Internet Computing

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Social Media and Politics Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining Computational and Text Analysis Methods

Abstract

Predicting X from Twitter is a popular fad within the Twitter research subculture. It seems both appealing and relatively easy. Among such studies, electoral prediction is maybe the most attractive, and a growing body of literature exists on this topic. This research problem isn't only interesting, but is also extremely difficult. However, most authors seem to be more interested in claiming positive results than in providing sound and reproducible methods. It's also especially worrisome that recent papers seem to only acknowledge those studies supporting the idea that Twitter can predict elections. This is all problematic because while simple approaches are purported to be good enough, the predictive power of Twitter regarding elections has been greatly exaggerated, and difficult research problems still lie ahead.

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References

2010Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment 2011Information credibility on twitter 2010Do Pressures to Publish Increase Scientists' Bias? An Empirical Support from US States Data 2011How (Not) to Predict Elections 2011Why the Pirate Party Won the German Election of 2009 or The Trouble With Predictions: A Response to Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T. O., Sander, P. G., & Welpe, I. M. “Predicting Elections With Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal About Political Sentiment”

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