Human Performance in Assessing Subjective Probability Distributions

Abstract

Thirty-seven graduate students of business assessed subjective probability distributions for 55 ‘uncertain quantities’, after receiving initial training in Decision Analysis and in subjective probability assessment techniques. Subjects’ responses were also obtained on the following psychological measures: The 29-item California F Scale, Rokeach’s Dogmatism scale, Gough-Sanford Rigidity scale, Pettigrew’s Category Width (C-W) and Heim’s AH5 test of general intelligence. Degree of overconfidence in assessment and category width scores showed, as expected, a negative association; r of —.41 for the total group was significant at the .05 level. Category width as a personality variable may thus be useful in understanding the overconfidence effect in probability assessment.

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