Food Price Variability and Economic Reform: An ARCH Approach for Ghana

Gerald Shively

65 citations0/0 files storedAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics

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Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets Market Dynamics and Volatility Agricultural risk and resilience

Abstract

Abstract Changes in maize price levels and variability in Ghana are investigated. A model of wholesale price determination is reviewed in which grain stocks are held for speculative storage as well as export to neighboring countries in the Sahel. To test the model, an Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (ARCH) regression is applied to monthly maize data for two markets over the period 1978–93. The regression is used to measure changes in maize price volatility in Ghana, and to infer the importance of past prices, domestic and regional production, and commodity storage and trade in explaining these changes.

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References

1986Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity 1992ARCH modeling in finance 2012Adjustment with a Human Face 1992Cash Crop Production, Food Price Volatility, and Rural Market Integration in the Third World 1990On The Behavior of Commodity Prices 1992Testing the Link Between Devaluation and Inflation: Time Series Evidence from Ghana1

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2016Markets, Transportation Infrastructure, and Food Prices in Nepal 1996Economic reform and food prices: Evidence from markets in Ghana

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