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Consumer research has become a staple of modern life. Newspapers routinely report the results of their own opinion surveys. Nonprofit arts organizations conduct research to help determine which acts to book and how to price tickets. Advertising agencies depend on research to predict and evaluate consumer responses to marketing campaigns. Manufacturers generate consumer research to inform product introduction and pricing decisions. Politicians conduct polls to guide campaign strategies. Why does consumer research pass the market test in so many forums? Imperfect as most research may be, many decision makers apparently believe that it leads to better information and better decisions than expert opinion alone. This should not be surprising: academic studies suggest that experts are often unable to predict consumer opinions.1
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