Optimizing Urban Futures

Abstract

Mental, descriptive, or mathematical modelling processes are often used to predict or prescribe the future. The certainty of such projections can be improved by careful selection of the modelling criteria. Information theory is used to develop models that maximize the use of available information, which may include observed data, system constraints, and community objectives. The use of game and information theory is explored via a combined land-use and transportation planning model to project the development of an urban system from the viewpoints of different groups and the decisions they control. This model can optimize future urban form by means of a weighted set of planning and behavioural goals. Variables include new activity, demolitions of existing activity, transport flows, and energy consumption. Solutions are generated by optimizing the model under cooperative and noncooperative gaming conditions. The use of subsidies and surcharges to manipulate solutions towards a compromise or equilibrium is discussed.

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