Articlediamond2012

Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies

39 citations0/0 files storedDemographic Research

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Forecasting Techniques and Applications demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this paper, I revisit some methods for forecasting age-specific life expectancies.

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References

1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1978Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control.2008Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R 1969The Combination of Forecasts 2002Broken Limits to Life Expectancy 1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 1989Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography 2002Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes

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2017Probabilistic mortality forecasting with varying age-specific survival improvements 2016A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom 2017Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts 2020Mortality Forecasting with the Lee–Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity 2022The slowdown in mortality improvement rates 2011–2017: a multi-country analysis 2015Statistically tested comparisons of the accuracy of forecasting methods for age-specific and sex-specific mortality and life expectancy

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