Predicting future citation behavior

Quentin L. Burrell

80 citations0/0 files storedJournal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology

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scientometrics and bibliometrics research Complex Network Analysis Techniques Web visibility and informetrics

Abstract

Abstract In this article we further develop the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. More precisely, we investigate the conditional distribution—and its mean—of the number of citations to a paper after time t, given the number of citations it has received up to time t. In an important parametric case it is shown that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, this being interpretable as an example of a success‐breeds‐success phenomenon.

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1976A general theory of bibliometric and other cumulative advantage processes 1985A bibliometric distribution which really works

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2018An Assessment of the Exporting Literature: Using Theory and Data to Identify Future Research Directions 2020An Assessment of Brand Experience Knowledge Literature: Using Bibliometric Data to Identify Future Research Direction 2017A Review of Global Competitiveness Research: Past Advances and Future Directions 2014Usage metrics versus altmetrics: confusing terminology?2021Making sense of sensory brand experience: Constructing an integrative framework for future research 2005Are “Sleeping Beauties” to be expected?2021Knowledge structure in product- and brand origin–related research 2006Modeling citation behavior in Management Science journals

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