The 'Artful' Decision Maker: A Framework Model for Aeronautical Decision Making

Abstract

The important role of good decision making in aviation safety is now widely recognized. Although much effort has been devoted to the development of prescriptive models of aeronautical decision making (ADM) and the preparation of training materials, very few attempts have been made to study the actual decision-making processes of pilots. This article reviews the available literature of descriptive studies of ADM, as well as other examples of naturalistic decision making in complex, dynamic environments. The process of ADM appears to differ in significant ways from the normative approach of decision analysis. A framework model of ADM is proposed and its compatibility with current artificial intelligence models of decision making is discussed. The role of this descriptive model in directing future research into ADM and as a basis for further prescriptive efforts are highlighted.

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