Models of Superstardom: An Application of the Lotka and Yule Distributions

Abstract

One common measure of success for popular recording artists is the receipt of gold or platinum sales awards. With regard to singles—the focus of this study—a gold award signifies sales of 1 million copies, whereas a platinum award signifies sales of 2 million copies (Recording Industry Association of America). A simple ranking of artists by the number of gold and platinum singles awarded demonstrates that relatively few artists have a great many awards, and that many artists have a few awards (see Tables 1 and 2). This skewness in success is often viewed \nas evidence of the superstar phenomenon. The superstar phenomenon is proposed to occur in occupations where personal rewards are closely associated with market size, and where, according to Rosen, there is “a strong tendency for both market size and reward to be skewed toward the most talented people in the activity” (845). In the next section we examine theories relating to superstardom. We then introduce two laws of scattering (namely those laws proposed by Lotka and Yule) that may be used to explain differences in success among music performers. We then test these theories against data collected for gold and platinum singles for 1958–2001. The paper concludes with a discussion of our findings.

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