Migrant Settlement and Spatial Distribution in Metropolitan Shanghai∗

Abstract

Given the persistence of China's migration trends since the early 1980s, migrants have begun to assert their influence on cities' spatial structure. This article attempts to understand the geography of migrant residence and how it relates to the overall spatial development in metropolitan Shanghai. It explores the key geographical factors underlying migrant spatial distribution. Results are based on spatial analyses and a regression model at the subdistrict level, with data drawn primarily from the 2000 Population Census, 1996 Basic Establishment Census, and a migrant housing survey completed in 1999. The article also shows how intra-urban migrant settlement and mobility patterns in China might be distinctive from those in other developing countries, given China's unique context and institutional factors. In general, migrant distribution in metropolitan Shanghai displayed a strong degree of centrality until the late 1990s when the inner suburb became the main receptor for new arrivals. The geography of migrant residence has shifted in tandem with deconcentration of the local population and, to a lesser degree, industrial relocation. Areas with a large number of manufacturing enterprises but a smaller state sector are likely to see a high share of migrants in total population. New arrivals also are attracted to areas already concentrated with migrants. Housing availability, however, proves to be an insignificant predictor.

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