Articlegreen1988

Competition and forecasts for Nobel prize awards

11 citations0/0 files storedTechnological Forecasting and Social Change

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scientometrics and bibliometrics research Research, Science, and Academia Historical Studies and Socio-cultural Analysis

Abstract

The evolution of Nobel prize awards is studied as a learning/growing process. A simple logistic function describes the data well and accounts for the competition, be it between individuals or between nations. The American niche appears to be 64% exhausted by 1987, implying a diminishing expected rate of laureates in the future. Europeans have been losing ground continuously from the beginning while the remaining world has recently received more awards. Projections to the year 2000 and beyond are given. Correlations with age support the Darwinian nature of the competition for Nobel prizes. Awards to women show peaks coincidental with outbursts of feminism.

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References

1979Technological forecasting and social change 1971A simple substitution model of technological change 1935The Long Waves in Economic Life 1979Software Package for the Logistic Substitution Model 1983On the role of science in the postindustrial society

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