The price-volume relationship in the sale and purchase market for dry bulk vessels

Abstract

This paper investigates, for the first time, the relationship between prices and trading activity in a market where real assets are traded, i.e. in the sale and purchase market for second-hand dry bulk vessels. Investigation of this issue is of interest since the level of trading activity may contain information about the sentiment and the future direction of the prices in the market. Several important conclusions emerge from this analysis. It is found that price changes are useful in predicting trading volume, which suggests that higher capital gains encourage more transactions in the market. Additionally, it seems that volume has a negative impact on the volatility of price changes. More specifically, in contrast to what is reported for financial markets, we find evidence that, in the market for ships, increases in trading activity lead to a reduction in market volatility. This can be explained by the unique underlying characteristics of the market for ships, including thin trading, which imply that increases in trading activity result in price transparency and stability. These findings indicate that practitioners in the market may use the information contained in the level of trading activity so as to guide their market decisions in the sale and purchase market.

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