Strategic Thinking and Risk Attitudes in Route Choice

Michael Razo · Song Gao

23 citations0/0 files storedTransportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Economic and Environmental Valuation

Abstract

This research investigates route choice behavior in networks with risky travel times and real-time information. A stated preference survey is conducted. In it subjects use a PC-based interactive map to choose routes link by link in various scenarios. The scenarios include two types of maps: the first map presents a choice between one stochastic route and one deterministic route, and the second contains real-time information and an available detour. The first type of map measures the basic risk attitude of the subject. The second type allows for strategic planning and measures the effect of this opportunity on subjects’ choice behavior. Results from each subject are analyzed to determine whether the subject planned strategically for the en route information or simply selected fixed paths from origin to destination. The full data set is used to estimate several choice models with expected travel times and standard deviations as explanatory variables. Estimation results are used to assess whether models that incorporate strategic behavior more accurately reflect route choice than do simpler path-based models.

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References

1979Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk 1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk 2003Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation 1988Discrete choice analysis: Theory and application to travel demand 2003Small feedback‐based decisions and their limited correspondence to description‐based decisions 2005On Adaptation, Maximization, and Reinforcement Learning Among Cognitive Strategies.1986The Fastest Path through a Network with Random Time-Dependent Travel Times 1999Dynamics of commuting decision behaviour under advanced traveller information systems

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2019Learning routing policies in a disrupted, congestible network with real-time information: An experimental approach 2023Route Choice Behavior in a Driving Simulator With Real-time Information 2019A latent-class adaptive routing choice model in stochastic time-dependent networks 2014Whether to enter expressway or not? The impact of new variable message sign information 2014Routing Policy Choice Set Generation in Stochastic Time-Dependent Networks

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