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Adding possibilities can reduce the Gambler's Fallacy: A naïve-probability paradox
12 references·3 citing·45 second hop
Adding possibilities can reduce the Gambler's Fallacy: A naïve-probability paradox (2011)Adding possibilities can reduce the Gambl…Perceptions of randomness: Why three heads are better than four. (2009)Perceptions of randomness: Wh…Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence (2008)Effects of amount of informat…The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence (2007)The illusion of knowledge: Wh…Overcoming intuition: Metacognitive difficulty activates analytic reasoning. (2007)Overcoming intuition: Metacog…The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness? (2004)The hot hand fallacy and the …Thinking: Psychological Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment and Decision Making (2003)Thinking: Psychological Persp…Superstitious responding and frequency matching in the positive bias and gambler’s fallacy effects (2003)Superstitious responding and …Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. (1999)Naive probability: A mental m…How the Mind Works (1999)How the Mind WorksThe use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning. (1983)The use of statistical heuris…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Belief in the law of small nu…Response preferences: A review of some relevant literature. (1964)Response preferences: A revie…The number of available sample observations modulates gambler’s fallacy in betting behaviors (2025)The number of available sampl…A longitudinal analysis of the hot hand and gambler’s fallacy biases (2023)A longitudinal analysis of th…Small samples and evolution: did the law of small numbers arise as an adaptation to environmental challenges? (2015)Small samples and evolution: …An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)The extended contact effect: Knowledge of cross-group friendships and prejudice. (1997)The Career of Metaphor. (2005)Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. (1996)Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (1999)When choice is demotivating: Can one desire too much of a good thing? (2000)Developing and evaluating intercultural competence: Ethnographies of intercultural encounters (2012)An investigation of information sharing and seeking behaviors in online investment communities (2013)Belief in the unstructured interview: The persistence of an illusion (2013)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The case for motivated reasoning. (1990)Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts (2009)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)The Paradox of Participation Versus Misinformation: Social Media, Political Engagement, and the Spread of Misinformation (2019)Purpose and cognition: the determiners of animal learning. (1925)Probability-Preferences in Gambling (1953)Psychological probability as a function of experienced frequency. (1953)Sequential effects in magnitude scaling: Models and theory. (1990)Protean primates: The evolution of adaptive unpredictability in competition and courtship (1997)Random Walks and Sustained Competitive Advantage (2004)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Outcome of psychological treatments of pathological gambling: a review and meta‐analysis (2005)Twenty years of “hot hand” research: Review and critique (2006)Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires * (2016)American Economic Review (2019)The Principles of Psychology (1891)Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making (2005)Interactions of Metacognition With Motivation and Affect in Self-Regulated Learning: The MASRL Model (2011)Analytic thinking reduces belief in conspiracy theories (2014)Many Labs 2: Investigating Variation in Replicability Across Samples and Settings (2018)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Adaptationism – how to carry out an exaptationist program (2002)Pure Reasoning in 12-Month-Old Infants as Probabilistic Inference (2011)Situation Awareness-Based Agent Transparency (2014)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Handbook of Emotions (1993)Core affect and the psychological construction of emotion. (2003)Probability theory, not the very guide of life. (2009)The hot hand exists in volleyball and is used for allocation decisions. (2011)The “hot hand” reconsidered: A meta-analytic approach (2012)
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References

  • 1999How the Mind Works3,738 cited
  • 1971Belief in the law of small numbers.3,244 cited
  • 2007Overcoming intuition: Metacognitive difficulty activates analytic reasoning.844 cited
  • 1983The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.811 cited
  • 2004The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?471 cited
  • 1999Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning.305 cited
  • 2007The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence195 cited
  • 1964Response preferences: A review of some relevant literature.160 cited
  • 2008Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence151 cited
  • 2009Perceptions of randomness: Why three heads are better than four.151 cited
  • 2003Thinking: Psychological Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment and Decision Making141 cited
  • 2003Superstitious responding and frequency matching in the positive bias and gambler’s fallacy effects40 cited

Cited by

  • 2015Small samples and evolution: did the law of small numbers arise as an adaptation to environmental challenges?5 cited
  • 2025The number of available sample observations modulates gambler’s fallacy in betting behaviors4 cited

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  • 2023A longitudinal analysis of the hot hand and gambler’s fallacy biases2 cited