The Linda Problem Revisited from the Perspective of Cognitive-Experiential Self-Theory

Abstract

Results from four experiments (N = 548) support the hypothesis from cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST) that the resistance of the notorious Linda conjunction problem to solution can be attributed primarily to its simultaneously concrete and unnatural context. The experiments demonstrated that the influence of other variables, such as problem order, event likelihood, within-versus between-protagonist context, and statistical sophistication, although important, cannot account for the robust influence of the combination of the concrete-abstract and natural-unnatural dimensions. The implications of the demonstration that virtually everyone has intuitive knowledge of the conjunction rule are discussed, in addition to cuing effects, narrative processing, and methodological issues that have produced serious distortions in the interpretation of previous research.

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