Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of AIDS, with an Application to Tanzania

John T. Cuddington

221 citations0/0 files storedThe World Bank Economic Review

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HIV/AIDS Impact and Responses Economic Growth and Productivity Economic Growth and Development

Abstract

A Solow-style model is developed to study the effects of the AIDS epidemic on the growth path of the economy and GDP per capita. The model uses conjectures about the demographic effects of AIDS in Tanzania to estimate the macroeconomic effects on the economy. The findings suggest that, without decisive policy action, AIDS may reduce Tanzanian GDP in the year 2010 by 15 to 25 percent in relation to a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario. Per capita income levels are expected to fall by 0 to 10 percent by 2010.

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1956A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth 1988On the mechanics of economic development 1990World Development Report 1990.

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2004The Macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS 1994Assessing the impact of AIDS on the growth path of the Malawian economy 2000Chapter 33 Economic epidemiology and infectious diseases 2005AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach 2001The HIV/AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment 2006The poverty-HIV/AIDS nexus in Africa: A livelihood approach 2000HIV/AIDS and Economic Growth: A Global Perspective*(1)2003The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic

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