Dating Turning Points in the Business Cycle

Michael D. Boldin

117 citations0/0 files storedThe Journal of Business

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Abstract

The author reviews and evaluates procedures for dating peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Five different methods are judged on their historical performance, age of replication, clarity, timeliness, flexibility, and the validity of underlying assumptions. In addition, the author examines the 1990-92 period in detail where two newer dating methods are especially insightful because they use statistically rigorous methods to derive turning point probabilities and, thereby, the inherent uncertainty in the data can be recognized. The author also concludes that additional research is needed on this topic to resolve some important controversies about business-cycle characteristics. Copyright 1994 by University of Chicago Press.

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References

1989A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle 1947Measuring Business Cycles 1947Measurement Without Theory 1993Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting.1990A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle 1982Optimal prediction of cyclical downturns 1991Business Cycle Duration Dependence: A Parametric Approach

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