A Market Entry Timing Model for New Technologies

Gary L. Lilien

158 citations0/0 files storedManagement Science

No readable copy stored yet — this record is metadata only.

No open-access location is known for this record yet.

Literature note Cite in a project Citation map

Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting Capital Investment and Risk Analysis Technology Assessment and Management

Abstract

A central issue in new product development and planning is the market timing/entry decision. An entry too early may risk pushing an under-developed product into the marketplace, with possible negative results; however, a product/technology may sacrifice sales if entry is delayed too long. A market diffusion model is developed that incorporates negative word-of-mouth associated with new product failure, resulting from premature introduction. Our analysis suggests that, when introducing a new technology, significant penalties may be associated with mistiming introduction. The analysis was applied to a problem facing the photovoltaic program of the Department of Energy. A proposal to construct a 100-home demonstration program for photovoltaics (PV) in the Southwest was being evaluated. The analysis of this case showed that an argument can be made to delay the demonstration program for several years and that significant risks (in terms of lowered ultimate market penetration) exist when starting this PV demonstration program prematurely.

Paper brief

Loading…

Cite this work

Citation unavailable for this work.

BibTeX RIS CSL-JSON

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Citations in this library

Citation map →

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 158 citations exist upstream.

References

1976A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables 2004A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables 1971A simple substitution model of technological change 1975Dynamic Price Models for New-Product Planning 1983Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products 1976Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products 1980The Relationship Between Diffusion Rates, Experience Curves, and Demand Elasticities for Consumer Durable Technological Innovations 1984Introduction Strategy for New Products with Positive and Negative Word-of-Mouth

Cited by

2011Innovation and imitation effects in Metaverse service adoption 2003Cellular automata modeling of resistance to innovations: Effects and solutions 2005Optimal Product Launch Times in a Duopoly: Balancing Life-Cycle Revenues with Product Cost 1990A dynamic perspective on the impact of process innovation upon competitive strategies 1995Order of market entry, competitive strategy, and financial performance

Explore the map →

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.

Imported from OpenAlex (CC0) — nothing here is generated.